http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/the-war-with-red-shirts/

The war with red shirts

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/the-war-with-red-shirts/ The war with red shirts It seems that the Army has April fever, spoiling for yet another fight with the red shirts. When red shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan made a fiery speech on 10 April, attacking the army for killing protesters while claiming to be protecting the monarchy (see the speech and read about Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha's heated response here). The Nation reports that the war between the red shirts and the Army and royalist regime is continuing  to heat up. Nattawut and Jatuporn (Bangkok Post photo) Prayuth's personal response to Jatuporn's speech was to lay complaints of lese majeste. In response, the red shirt leaders have reportedly "threatened to file libel and lese majeste charges against the political establishment…". Jatuporn said "he would lodge a complaint with … [police]  against General Prayuth Chan-ochar for falsely claiming lese majeste by three red leaders." That seems like a reasonable response to Prayuth's undisguised political bile. What might be less appropriate is the suggestion that the red shirt leaders might consider "filing a lese majeste suit against Privy Council Chairman Prem Tinsulanonda for his recent statement on WikiLeaks…". The last thing red shirts need to do is engage in a competition over elite notions of "loyalty" built on a political charge of lese majeste. Jatuporn is right to protest the political exploitation of the monarchy and the use of lese majeste as a means of repression. Another red shirt, Nattawut Saikua, warned: "Don't corner us, our patience is wearing thin…". He said: "The move against the red-shirt group was simply an attempt by a conservative wing to find an excuse to stage a coup or suppress the red shirts again…". Interestingly, he added: If you want to protect the monarchy, fine. But let me tell you |one thing, please don't use stupid people to protect the monarchy with stupid means. It could be worse…. PPT assumes he is playing the Prayuth chip. The hot-tempered army boss will undoubtedly respond. TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011 Thailand: The Calm before Another Storm? http://www.deepsouthwatch.org/sites/default/files/B121-%20Thailand-%20The%20Calm%20Before%20Another%20Storm.pdf Update Briefing Asia Briefing N°121  Bangkok/Brussels, 11 April 2011  Thailand: The Calm before Another Storm?  I. OVERVIEW  Nearly a year after the crackdown on anti-establishment  demonstrations, Thailand is preparing for a general election.  Despite government efforts to suppress the Red Shirt movement, support remains strong and the deep political divide  has not gone away. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's roadmap for reconciliation has led almost nowhere. Although  there have been amateurish bomb attacks carried out by  angry Red Shirts since the crackdown, fears of an underground battle have not materialised. On the other side, the  Yellow Shirts have stepped up their nationalist campaigns  against the Democrat Party-led government that their earlier  rallies had helped bring to power. They are now claiming  elections are useless in "dirty" politics and urging Thais to  refuse to vote for any of the political parties. Even if the  elections are free, fair and peaceful, it will still be a challenge for all sides to accept the results. If another coalition is  pushed together under pressure from the royalist establishment, it will be a rallying cry for renewed mass protests  by the Red Shirts that could plunge Thailand into more  violent confrontation.  The Red Shirt demonstrations in March-May 2010 sparked  the most deadly clashes between protestors and the state in  modern Thai history and killed 92 people. The use of  force by the government may have weakened the Red Shirts  but the movement has not been dismantled and is still  supported by millions of people, particularly in the North  and North East. Arresting their leaders as well as shutting  down their media and channels of communication has only  reinforced their sense of injustice. Some in the movement's  hardline fringe have chosen to retaliate with violence but  the leadership has reaffirmed its commitment to peaceful  political struggle. The next battle will be waged through  ballot boxes and the Red Shirts will throw their weight  behind their electoral wing, the Pheu Thai Party.  The protracted struggle between supporters of the elite establishment – the monarchy, the military and the judiciary – and  those allied with ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra  began with the formation of the "yellow-shirted" People's  Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in 2006. The September  2006 coup removed Thaksin from power but prompted the  emergence of a counter movement: the United Front for  Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) or Red Shirts. The  PAD's campaigns to close down Bangkok airports in 2008  created deadlock that was resolved by a court ruling that removed Thaksin's "proxy" party – People Power Party – from  power. This led to the formation of the Democrat-led coalition government, backed by the military. Two years later,  the ultra-nationalist Yellow Shirts have apparently split  from their former allies and are protesting outside Government House against Abhisit's alleged failure to defend  "Thai territory" in the Preah Vihear border dispute with  Cambodia. The PAD's call for a "virtuous" leader to replace  the prime minister has raised concerns that it is inviting the  military to stage a coup.  Abhisit has stated he will dissolve parliament in the first  week of May after expediting the enactment of legislation to  revise key electoral rules. He is moving quickly towards the  elections amid rumours of a coup. With the new rules and  pre-poll largesse, the Democrat Party hopes to secure  more seats and position itself to lead another coalition.  Thaksin is still popular with much of the electorate and  there is a strong possibility that his de facto Pheu Thai Party  could emerge as the largest party. The formation of the  government is likely to be contentious. The UDD has threatened to return to the streets if Pheu Thai wins a plurality but  does not form the government. Obvious arm bending by the  royalist establishment to this end is a recipe for renewed  protests and violence. Should the opposite occur, and Pheu  Thai has the numbers to lead a new government, the Yellow  Shirts might regain momentum; they are unlikely to tolerate a "proxy" Thaksin government.  While elections will not resolve the political divide and the  post-election scenarios look gloomy, Thailand nevertheless  should proceed with the polls. A well-publicised electoral  code of conduct and independent monitoring by local and  international observers could help enhance their credibility  and minimise violence during the campaign. If installed  successfully, the new government with a fresh mandate  will have greater credibility to lead any longer term effort to  bring about genuine political reconciliation.  Thailand: The Calm before Another Storm?   Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°121, 11 April 2011 Page 2